March 21, 2020 | Joe Brew
COVID-19 and health services capacity in Spain

A tool for generating rough estimates for when COVID-19 health services "demand" (critically ill patients) will surpass "supply" (ICU beds) in Spain

One of the critical challenges that the rapid global rise in COVID-19 cases presents is the fact that the "supply" of intensive medical care (ie, the human, material, and infrastructural resources of the healthcare services) will be unlikely to keep up with the "demand" (ie, the number of critically ill patients).

In order to plan, it is important to estimate both when and by how much surpacity will be surpassed. Doing so allows for the appropriate allocation of emergency resources and operations (such as field hospitals).

In this spirit, we've put together a very basic web application, written in R Shiny, with the sole purpose of estimating the trajectory in terms of UCI bed needs and the capacity in Spain. HERE it is. Nothing special. A simple log-linear model for predicting the future based on the recent past, with a few modifiable parameters in regards to length of UCI stay, etc. We got the number of beds from a newspaper article and made some simplistic assumptions about the reduction in non-COVID health-seeking behavior. But otherwise, rought as it may be, we think it's useful.

HERE it is.

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